The reasons why Trump will win in 2020
Many Democrats know they are
likely to lose in 2020, just as they did in 2016, if they don’t find a way to
resolve the ideological war that still splits the party.
The Democrats have not yet learned the
lesson as Democrats in 2016 were astonished by the loss of their “blue wall” in critical states such as
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where erstwhile working- and
middle-class Democratic voters gave the election to Trump.
Similar lessons apply to the
Democrats in 2020. In the longer run, Trump is hardly more appealing as a
positive message than “Stronger Together” was for Hillary Clinton.
And let’s
be frank: It wasn’t Russian hacking or the indiscretions of former FBI Director
James Comey that mainly cost Clinton the election; it was that she had no
coherent message other than “don’t vote for him.” Even with impeachment staining Trump’s presidency, the Democrats need to
find a fresh-sounding positive message to counter him. They’re not even close.
Tiny
counties traditionally overlooked by candidates helped deliver Trump his 2016
victories in states like Wisconsin (where the smallest 48 counties = 22% of the
statewide vote) and Pennsylvania (where the 45 smallest counties = 20% of the
statewide vote)
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Senior officials said three important points:
1-They think they can work that dynamic next year
in Minnesota, which Trump narrowly lost last time.
2-The campaign also sees Trump's grip on the
party's message and the retirement of more old-guard Republicans as ways to
redefine the party and appeal to new voters.
3-They say they see a path to improve Trump's low
standing with black voters by focusing on strong economic numbers and criminal
justice reform.
Making
the best of his unpopularity: Impeachment has been good for
business:
1-The campaign has been raking in millions through
text message and online fundraising, as we've previously reported, selling
"Bull-Schiff" t-shirts and other impeachment merchandise on the Trump
online store.
2-Trump has been telling audiences variations on
the idea they'll have "no choice" but to vote for him even if they
don't like him personally because his policies help them or Democrats' plans
will hurt them.
3-Trump rallies have become massive data capturing
opportunities, more sophisticated than in 2016, built for message testing as
well as churning out new donors and volunteers.
4-They say they already have 300,000 volunteers,
and that their list of supporters has grown by nearly 200 percent since 2016.
The prediction from the election markets:
·
The odds Trump wins in November are almost even at 10-to-11
compared with 5-to-6 for a Democrat generally. The 10-to-11 odds aren't that
impressive compared to Barack Obama's odds (1-to-3) at a similar point in 2012,
and George W. Bush, 1-to-2.
The bigger question is, how accurate are the polls, how reliable, after their misreading of the contest in 2016. There is some indication that Trump supporters are avoiding political polls and that the Trump vote is being under-recorded.
Don't forget:
President Trump is the only president in the last 30 years who didn't start a war or attacked another country. Instead he brings our soldiers home.