4 reasons why American and western weapons won't make any difference to Ukraine now
As
large-scale war in Ukraine enters its fortieth week, America and Western
governments must support Kyiv as it resists a Russian invasion that is
destroying much of the country and raise the costs of aggression to Moscow. On
the other hand, they have to minimize risks of the war spiraling into a wider
confrontation between Russia and NATO. In the face of Ukraine’s resistance,
Russia has turned to ever more brutal tactics.
Zelenskyy
has asked the U.S. to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine to diminish the
Russian bombardment continuing to devastate the country. A no-fly zone would
require American forces to police the airspace over Ukraine, which would almost
certainly lead to a direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia. President
Biden has drawn a red line that no U.S. forces will fight in Ukraine. Western
leaders should, as they have done so far, avoid tactics, like a no-fly zone
that would be tantamount to war with Russia.
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The
American weapons that have been supplied to Ukraine:
- The
Javelin is a shoulder-mounted weapon forces are able to carry with them. The
U.S. has provided over 7,000 Javelin anti-tank systems to Ukraine, according to
the White House. The hallmark of the Javelin is its "top attack"
capability: the missile flies 150 meters into the air and then strikes the tank
from the top, where the armor is the thinnest.
100 grenade
launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns, 400 shotguns, Over 20
million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds,
25,000 sets of body armor and 25,000 helmets.
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The reasons why American and western weapons won't make any difference:
1- Ukraine
desperately needs fighter aircraft, as Russia has a significant advantage in
military aviation. The simplest option would be to transfer Soviet-era Su-27
and MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, dozens of which are in service in Poland,
Bulgaria, and Romania. NATO countries are currently discussing this but,
unfortunately, have not yet provided aircraft to Ukraine. This appears to be
because Ukraine’s eastern European allies are unwilling to weaken their own air
forces.
2- Ukraine
needs more anti-aircraft missile systems and man-portable air defence systems
(MANPADS). The former will help the country protect critical military and
civilian infrastructure from Russian bombers flying at high altitudes, as well
as missiles. The latter will help it protect Ukrainian troops and cities from
Russian helicopters, fighters, and bombers that are flying at low altitudes in
an attempt to evade air defence systems.
3- Beyond
nuclear threats, the Kremlin has also declared that NATO weapons supplies are
legitimate targets, though what it means by this warning is unclear. For now,
it is sticking to targets in Ukraine rather than risk an attack on NATO
territory and the response that could invite, although it may seek to engineer
deniable accidents and otherwise disrupt supply efforts in countries staging
weapons deliveries. On 13 March, Russia bombed the Yavoriv military training
site in western Ukraine, only 20km away from the Polish border.
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4- The Russian military has far more manpower and equipment than Ukrainian forces, especially in military aviation. Therefore, NATO countries will need to markedly increase their supplies of arms, including advanced weapons systems, to Ukraine.