4 reasons why American and western weapons won't make any difference to Ukraine now

As large-scale war in Ukraine enters its fortieth week, America and Western governments must support Kyiv as it resists a Russian invasion that is destroying much of the country and raise the costs of aggression to Moscow. On the other hand, they have to minimize risks of the war spiraling into a wider confrontation between Russia and NATO. In the face of Ukraine’s resistance, Russia has turned to ever more brutal tactics.

Zelenskyy has asked the U.S. to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine to diminish the Russian bombardment continuing to devastate the country. A no-fly zone would require American forces to police the airspace over Ukraine, which would almost certainly lead to a direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia. President Biden has drawn a red line that no U.S. forces will fight in Ukraine. Western leaders should, as they have done so far, avoid tactics, like a no-fly zone that would be tantamount to war with Russia.

The American weapons that have been supplied to Ukraine:

- The Javelin is a shoulder-mounted weapon forces are able to carry with them. The U.S. has provided over 7,000 Javelin anti-tank systems to Ukraine, according to the White House. The hallmark of the Javelin is its "top attack" capability: the missile flies 150 meters into the air and then strikes the tank from the top, where the armor is the thinnest.

- Stinger anti-aircraft systems: The Stinger is a portable surface-to-air missile system designed to go after aircraft. The Stinger missile's range can target planes and helicopters flying below 13,000 feet. Like the Javelin, the Stinger is a "fire and forget" system that uses an infrared guide to home in on a target.

- In addition to the different systems above, the Biden administration in its most recent $800 million package of assistance is providing Ukraine with:

100 grenade launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns, 400 shotguns, Over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds, 25,000 sets of body armor and 25,000 helmets.

The reasons why American and western weapons won't make any difference:

1- Ukraine desperately needs fighter aircraft, as Russia has a significant advantage in military aviation. The simplest option would be to transfer Soviet-era Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, dozens of which are in service in Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania. NATO countries are currently discussing this but, unfortunately, have not yet provided aircraft to Ukraine. This appears to be because Ukraine’s eastern European allies are unwilling to weaken their own air forces.

2- Ukraine needs more anti-aircraft missile systems and man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS). The former will help the country protect critical military and civilian infrastructure from Russian bombers flying at high altitudes, as well as missiles. The latter will help it protect Ukrainian troops and cities from Russian helicopters, fighters, and bombers that are flying at low altitudes in an attempt to evade air defence systems.

3- Beyond nuclear threats, the Kremlin has also declared that NATO weapons supplies are legitimate targets, though what it means by this warning is unclear. For now, it is sticking to targets in Ukraine rather than risk an attack on NATO territory and the response that could invite, although it may seek to engineer deniable accidents and otherwise disrupt supply efforts in countries staging weapons deliveries. On 13 March, Russia bombed the Yavoriv military training site in western Ukraine, only 20km away from the Polish border.

4- The Russian military has far more manpower and equipment than Ukrainian forces, especially in military aviation. Therefore, NATO countries will need to markedly increase their supplies of arms, including advanced weapons systems, to Ukraine.