7 reasons why Democrats will lose midterm elections 2022

 

There have been 19 midterm elections since the end of World War II in 1945. In 17 of those elections, the president’s party has lost seats in the House. The average loss has been 27 House seats. Today, if the GOP gained that many seats, it would be more than enough for the party to become the House majority in January 2023.

A president’s party has gained Senate seats in a midterm 14 times since 1862, including six times in the past 60 years: 1962, 1966, 1970, 1982, 2002 and 2018.

1- Republicans are aiming to take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate from Democrats in November’s midterm elections, and betting market PredictIt gives a 74% chance for a House flip, but just 40% odds for the Senate changing hands. The outcomes for the midterms will determine the extent to which the GOP can shake up President Joe Biden’s agenda, such as by providing aggressive oversight of the Biden administration’s regulators or taking action on issues such as the child tax credit or crime. A first-term president’s party tends to lose congressional ground in the midterms.

2- With a small House majority, Democrats have fewer vulnerable seats to defend in 2022. Although it’s not uncommon for winning presidential candidates to carry weaker House candidates to victory, Democrats lost 11 seats when Biden won in 2020, including defeats in generally Republican states such as Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah.

3- Trump’s active role in the 2022 midterms could drive core Republican voters to turn out to the polls, but Trump also galvanizes voting by Democrats, even if they’re tepid about Biden.

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4- Things have improved for Democrats in the House even though they are still underdogs. Following the Supreme’s Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, polls for the race for Congress have inched toward Democrats.

5- Republicans are traditionally better on defense ITA, and because the U.S. can’t stay on its current path with inflation “through the roof” and hurting retirees.

6- For Republicans, the road to a House majority starts with their continued dominance in the seat-rich South, the country’s most populous and fastest-growing region. Since the southern realignment of the 1990s and early 2000s, the South has become a critical anchor for the GOP’s hunt for a House majority. Before the southern realignment, Republicans had been held to under 200 seats in every House election after 1956.

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7- At last, redistricting provided a reasonable but complicated path to a GOP House majority. To win it, Republicans must hold all 208 districts in new maps that Donald Trump would have won in the last presidential election plus at least some of the 30 districts that Joe Biden narrowly carried that year. That likely will not be hard in 2022 given strongly pro-Republican midterm dynamics, but it could prove quite a bit more challenging in future cycles if the expected swing toward Republicans in 2022 in Biden districts is only a cyclical blip rather than a longer-term realignment.

Since at least the mid-1800s, the party that controls the White House has typically lost seats in Congress in the midterm elections.

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